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Elimination of weekend service and the end of half-hourly trains could be required to reduce budget shortfalls despite strong ridership recovery and high rider satisfaction
At its November Board meeting, Caltrain outlined the significant service cuts and operational impacts the agency would face if the proposed regional transit funding measure fails in November 2026 and no new external funding is available.
Transit agencies across the Bay Area are confronting structural budget shortfalls as post-pandemic travel patterns continue to reshape commuting behavior. Caltrain has responded on three fronts: cutting costs, monetizing resources, and adapting service. The agency has taken significant cost-cutting measures, including FTE freezes, crewing efficiencies, and reductions to professional services and other non-labor expenses. Caltrain is working on monetizing available resources and diversifying revenue through a non-fare revenue strategy portfolio that includes expanded advertising, property leasing, selling fiber optic cable and Transit Oriented Development. Finally, Caltrain has modernized and expanded service—boosting train frequency beyond traditional commute hours, improving reliability, and enhancing the rider experience following electrification. The preliminary FY25 budget end results are showing positive impacts from the cost efficiencies and more revenue than budgeted.
The focus on quality service is also paying off: ridership has risen 55% compared to September last year with weekend ridership doubling and four consecutive months of over one million riders. Rider satisfaction remains sky-high, with 91% of riders approving of the agency in a recent poll and results from a recent rider satisfaction rating are the highest they have ever been in the 27 years of surveying Caltrain riders.
The regional measure would establish a stable funding source for Caltrain and other Bay Area transit systems to maintain reliable, accessible service. If the measure fails, Caltrain would be forced to take actions to reduce the structural funding gap, unless new external funding sources are identified. These measures would not be undertaken lightly but would be unavoidable in the absence of new revenue.
Potential impacts in the scenario presented include:
- Closing more than one-third of stations
- No weekend service
- Reducing service to once an hour
- Ending operations by 9 p.m.
- Cutting segments of service
These impacts would significantly undermine the progress Caltrain has made in recent years to rebuild ridership, improve service reliability, and support clean air goals through electrification.
Significant service cuts would push tens of thousands of daily riders back into cars, increasing congestion, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions while making it harder to reach jobs, social events, and local businesses. Reduced transit frequency would also diminish the value of properties near stations and weaken the region’s economic vitality.
“Caltrain has made tremendous strides in improving service, expanding ridership, and earning the trust of our riders and communities,” said Executive Director Michelle Bouchard. “The regional funding solution would provide a sustainable funding source to continue those efforts, but should it fail to pass we will face a number of scenarios that will affect years of progress, affect tens of thousands of daily riders who depend on Caltrain, increase traffic, and adversely affect the Bay Area’s economy.”
Caltrain will continue to work through budget scenarios with the Board in early 2026, with additional details on savings and the downsides of service cuts - which include significant loss of riders and associated revenue.
Caltrain remains committed to transparency about its financial outlook and to working with regional partners to identify sustainable, long-term solutions that protect the service improvements, ridership increases, and environmental benefits the agency has worked hard to achieve.
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About Caltrain: Owned and operated by the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board, Caltrain provides rail service from San Francisco to San Jose, with commute service to Gilroy. Serving the region since 1863, Caltrain is the oldest continually operating rail system west of the Mississippi and the first railroad to convert from diesel to electric power in a generation.
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Media Contact: Dan Lieberman, 650.622.2492